Is there such a thing as being over prepared? It certainly seemed that way after Tropical Storm Alex fizzled out like a damp firework. Shelters were opened; NEMO, CEMOs and DEMOs leaped into high gear; Love FM labored to fill extended coverage with chitchat in the face of a hard news void and all for nothing. It might seem like a waste of effort and resources but there really was no choice. If Alex had behaved as the models predicted we would have needed all these preparations and then some. As it is NEMO can wrack it up as a valuable practice for a more serious storm.
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The experience illustrates the dilemma we all confront in the face of uncertainty. We have to balance the cost of preparations with the likelihood of the event occurring. A simple example is that of a student preparing for an important examination. It is obviously wise to study those topics that are almost certain to come up. But what of those topics that rarely appear on the examination? It would be foolish to neglect all such topics because one or more is sure to appear but studying them all leaves the student less time to focus on the certain questions. A sensible strategy has to balance the need to cover most of the topics with the need to focus on those questions most likely to occur. In the same way our disaster response must be sufficient to avoid death and injury but not so intense that it uses up resources that would be better focused elsewhere. There is also the danger that if we over-react to small dangers that we become too nonchalant and don’t prepare sufficiently for the next threat which may be more serious.
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Disaster preparedness has come a long way under Hon. Melvin Hulse and his team, headed by the then CEO George Lovell. Mr. Lovell has now moved to become the CEO of the Ministry of the Police and Belizeans are hoping that he will put his considerable organizational skills to work to regenerate this vital arm of the fight against crime. It will not be an easy task because the problems are very deeply entrenched and have developed over time. Mr. Lovell is enough of an outsider to be able to see the issues clearly but sufficiently involved to understand the dynamics of change. He has to be prepared to make some very difficult decisions especially when it comes to personnel but he cannot over-react and destroy the whole organization. The situation of the Police is certainly at a level beyond that of a tropical storm. It has already reached hurricane proportions which makes it more difficult to make the necessary preparations.
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We as a community have to be involved in making ourselves prepared for Hurricane Crime and reaching out to friends and neighbours who need our help. That is a task for which we cannot over prepare.
